Kim Lane Scheppele, Professor of Sociology and International affairs at Princeton University, explains that the speed and viciousness of the legal orders in Trump 2.0 are evidence that America has switched over to the fast track for autocracy on January 20th, 2025. An expert in the law of autocracy, Scheppele has seen firsthand what happened to constitutional courts and the democratic norms that governed them in Russia and Hungary and she joins Dahlia Lithwick on Amicus this week to explain how Trump’s executive orders on everything from government funding to transgender people in the military reveal a familiar global playbook that has chillingly familiar endpoints.
Listen to Scheppele on the Amicus podcast (2/1/2025) here:Here is a 2023 interview with Scheppele at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna.Kim Lane Scheppele references countries in which democracies have been undermined by aspirational autocrats. Examples from Hungary, Poland, Venezuela, Ecuador, Turkey, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States and beyond demonstrate how democracies no longer necessarily die with tanks in the streets. Often democracies die when aspirational autocrats come to power through elections and then use constitutional methods to erode constraints on their power. With law as their weapon, aspirational autocrats damage the institutions that provide checks and balances, compromise the independence of the judiciary, stifle civil society, muzzle the press and use the power of the state against those who might challenge their monopoly on power.Here is an essay Scheppele wrote for the University of Chicago, in which she explains,This Essay focuses on the particular cases of autocratic legalism within the general phenomenon of democratic decline. By attacking the very basis of a constitutional order while using the methods made possible by that constitutional order, the new illiberals may be cheered on at first by the adulating crowds who sought change, but those same crowds will find these illiberals impossible to remove once they have destroyed the constitutional system that could have maintained their democratic accountability over the long run.
To get a better sense for how the legalistic autocrats function, Part I turns to the question of how one can recognize them early on. Next, Part II shows how the weaknesses and complexities in the theory of liberal democratic constitutionalism itself can be used to undermine liberalism. Then, Part III traces the typical script of the autocratic legalists to show precisely how they consolidate power under cover of law. The Essay concludes by asking what it would take to stop legalistic autocracy before it does irreparable harm to a liberal and constitutional democracy.Destroying Democracy by Law (forthcoming)Scheppele's forthcoming book explains that in recent history, democracies have been back sliding to autocracy through legal means within the law as opposed to the ways that external coups that used to destroy democracies from the outside. In 2023, Scheppele explains this in her presentation here.Strongmen
Another scholar who has been sounding the alarm on autocracy is historian Ruth Ben-Ghiat. In her 2021 book, Strongmen, she explains the playbook of authoritarian demagogues,"...enabling her to predict with uncanny accuracy the recent experience in America and Europe. In Strongmen, she lays bare the blueprint these leaders have followed over the past 100 years, and empowers us to recognize, resist, and prevent their disastrous rule in the future."
In a 2/2/2025 essay Ben-Ghiat writes,
What is happening now builds on classic authoritarian dynamics as I described them in Strongmen and in many essays for Lucid. There is always an “inner sanctum” that really runs the show, with its mix of family members and cronies, some with histories of working with or for foreign powers. And there is almost always a purge of the federal bureaucracy. That is now being carried out on a mass scale.
Historian Heather Cox Richardson, former FBI agent Asha Rangappa, former U.S. Attorney Joyce White Vance, and others have analyzed these processes and the interrelated factions that are implementing what I have called a Fascist-style counterrevolution: the MAGA loyalists inside and outside of the GOP, the Project 2025/Heritage Foundation crew (roughly two-thirds of the executive orders Trump has issued conform to Project 2025 plans), and the technocrats around Musk and Peter Thiel. Vice President J.D. Vance shows the overlap among the categories. Vance is a MAGA loyalist; he wrote the forward to Heritage CEO Kevin Robert’s book Dawn’s Early Light: Taking Back Washington To Save America; and he is the surrogate of Thiel, who bankrolled not only Vance’s Senate race but also his private business ventures.
The NY Times (2/7/2025) questions if all of Trump's moves are a constitutional crisis.
The president can’t shut down agencies that Congress has funded, yet that’s what Trump did, with Elon Musk’s help, to the U.S. Agency for International Development. The president can’t fire inspectors general without giving lawmakers 30 days’ notice, but Trump dismissed 17 of them anyway. Congress passed a law forcing TikTok to sell or close, and the courts upheld it, but Trump declined to enforce it. “The president is openly violating the law and Constitution on a daily basis,” said Brendan Nyhan, a political scientist at Dartmouth College.
In doing so, Trump has called the bluff of our constitutional system: It works best when each branch does its job with alacrity. Trump’s opponents are filing lawsuits, but courts are slow and deliberative. They can’t keep up with the changes the White House has already implemented. Congress could fight back, but the Republican lawmakers in charge have shrugged, as my colleague Carl Hulse reported. Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina conceded that what the administration is doing “runs afoul of the Constitution in the strictest sense.” But, he said, “nobody should bellyache about that.”
As a result, most of Trump’s actions stand unchecked.
10 things we can do to protect democracy from the Democracy Docket:
1. Stay engagedWhen all the news is about Trump and pardons and lies, it is easy to want to retreat and stop paying attention. Don’t. It is precisely when things are hard that we must all lean into remaining vigilant and informed.
2. Help DemocratsThe success of any opposition movement rests on the opposing party taking power. This is not a minor detail; in our system of government, it is the essential goal. Next time you want to attack a Democrat for being too much of this or too little of that, realize that you are only helping the GOP. Instead, find a Democrat you support and volunteer or contribute to their campaign.3. Don’t do Trump’s workThis is more than simply resisting Trump’s actions; it is refusing to accept his false assumptions. When he says he wants to abolish birthright citizenship, do not accept the premise that he has the power to do so. Stay grounded in the truth: The U.S. Constitution is clear, Trump is powerless and the courts will reject his efforts.4. Don’t grade on a curveThis goes both ways. Do not hold Republicans to a lower standard and do not hold Democrats to a higher one. When a Republican does something normal, recognize it is normal not exceptional. When a Democrat does something normal, recognize it is normal and not terrible.5. Believe in the courtsRepublicans control all three elected branches of the federal government. They do not control the courts. Yes, the U.S. Supreme Court has a solidly conservative majority, but the high court only hears a few dozen cases a year. And in some of those, the Court has sided with democracy. Most importantly, remember that Joe Biden confirmed a record number of new federal judges. And, of course, there are state courts. For better or worse, we are dependent on the courts to help protect democracy. Rather than assume they will not, insist they do.6. Beware of false attacksPam Bondi is an election denier. Kash Patel has an enemies list of political opponents. Donald Trump has promised retribution. When you hear that a Trump foe is under investigation, be skeptical. When you read about anonymous leaks against pro-democracy leaders, consider that it may be part of an effort to discredit their work.7. Support independent mediaThe legacy media is failing our democracy. Every day brings more news of another billionaire owner or corporate overlord bowing down to Trump. The solution is found in independent news outlets that have no incentive to make nice with the Republican Party. Some of these are broad-based news operations, some are issue specific. Pick a few and subscribe for free. Find one or two that you pay to support. It will go a long way to ensure a vibrant media ecosystem willing to stand up for democracy.8. Use your town squareEvery one of us has a town square. It may include our social media accounts, our local book club or dinner table. Use your town square to speak out in favor of democracy and against what Republicans are doing. Do not shy away from difficult conversations; seek them out. Engage the curious. Educate those who seek information. We all have a role to play, so don’t assume your voice is too faint or your platform too small.9. Prepare for a long fightIn 2017, we hoped that Trumpism was a fluke and would pass. We now know it will not. We are in for a long fight and must build and commit to an opposition movement that will stand the test of time. We will have victories and setbacks, good days and bad. We must understand that this will not be over in one election or with the defeat of any one candidate. This is the fight of our generation, and it will take time.10. Don’t give up hopeOur best political movements were hopeful. John Kennedy insisted that “we should not let our fears hold us back from pursuing our hopes.” Bill Clinton was the man from Hope. Barack Obama ran a campaign based on hope and change. Donald Trump and the Republicans want you to give up hope. Despair and cynicism fuel their movement. We must always, in the words of Jesse Jackson, “keep hope alive.”
Is It a Coup? It is bad, it is illegal, and it is a self-coup.
Alex Norris is a political scientist who has studied "the coup trap in Syria, Sudan and Iraq."
What we are seeing from the Trump administration is usually called a “self-coup” or autogolpe, which has a specific set of risks and possible responses within the state apparatus. Sometimes “is it a coup?” gets used as a stand-in for “is it bad and/or illegal?” I want to be clear that it is definitely bad and definitely illegal. What we want to know beyond that is what is happening, how does it succeed, and what can we do? ...A self-coup is when someone who is already the executive tries to dramatically increase their power at the expense of other government actors, also illegally. This distinction is not made just to be pedantic. The two acts have very different implications for the state and power.
To make a very, very long story short: People working for Elon Musk, who is technically working for President Donald Trump, have attempted to suspend large parts of the federal government, including a total closure of the U.S. Agency of International Development (USAID). They have also established a back door into the Treasury system that distributes funds and have possibly already used it to stop funds. They are trying to end the 14thamendment. They are firing people en masse from the civil service, including those they consider their political enemies, those who they suspect of promoting “diversity”, and anyone else, for any reason. They do not have the legal authority to do any of these things, and in many cases not even the security clearance to look at the things they are shutting down. There’s obviously more, but these are probably the most “coup-like” actions being taken.
This is clearly in the realm of self-coup rather than a coup displacing an executive. Musk seems relatively autonomous, but even his illegal power derives directly from Trump. Nothing Musk has done can prevent Trump from locking him out of all government buildings tomorrow. So, this is the illegal action, and if left standing it basically gives Trump an unoverridable veto over all legislation, including civil service protections, past and future. That is illegal and unconstitutional, so we have illegal and increasing power at the expense of others checked off.
In the meantime, popular pressure—visibility in the streets, calling legislators, talking to media, and even (sigh) posting—tells the actors involved what side the people are on. We are the ultimate source of legitimacy. Those in a position to stop this may or may not feel some abstract obligation to “the law.” You want to remind them of their obligation to the people. Express your opposition, however you can.
Weber's Patrimonialism helps explain how Trump will legally destroy Democracy
As explained in The Atlantic, Weber wrote about the style Trump is using to claim authority. Weber called it Patrimonialism.
Weber wondered how the leaders of states derive legitimacy, the claim to rule rightfully. He thought it boiled down to two choices. One is rational legal bureaucracy (or “bureaucratic proceduralism”), a system in which legitimacy is bestowed by institutions following certain rules and norms. That is the American system we all took for granted until January 20. Presidents, federal officials, and military inductees swear an oath to the Constitution, not to a person....
The other source of legitimacy is more ancient, more common, and more intuitive—“the default form of rule in the premodern world,” Hanson and Kopstein write. “The state was little more than the extended ‘household’ of the ruler; it did not exist as a separate entity.” Weber called this system “patrimonialism” because rulers claimed to be the symbolic father of the people—the state’s personification and protector. Exactly that idea was implied in Trump’s own chilling declaration: “He who saves his Country does not violate any Law.”
To understand the source of Trump’s hold on power, and its main weakness, one needs to understand what patrimonialism is not. It is not the same as classic authoritarianism. And it is not necessarily antidemocratic. Patrimonialism’s antithesis is not democracy; it is bureaucracy, or, more precisely, bureaucratic proceduralism. Classic authoritarianism—the sort of system seen in Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union—is often heavily bureaucratized. When authoritarians take power, they consolidate their rule by creating structures such as secret police, propaganda agencies, special military units, and politburos. They legitimate their power with legal codes and constitutions.
By contrast, patrimonialism is suspicious of bureaucracies; after all, to exactly whom are they loyal? They might acquire powers of their own, and their rules and processes might prove obstructive. People with expertise, experience, and distinguished résumés are likewise suspect because they bring independent standing and authority. So patrimonialism stocks the government with nonentities and hacks, or, when possible, it bypasses bureaucratic procedures altogether. When security officials at USAID tried to protect classified information from Elon Musk’s uncleared DOGE team, they were simply put on leave. Patrimonial governance’s aversion to formalism makes it capricious and even whimsical—such as when the leader announces, out of nowhere, the renaming of international bodies of water or the U.S. occupation of Gaza.
Other sources
Joyce Vance, a constitutional scholar, a former US attorney and federal prosecutor, calls the actions of Trump's second administration a coup.
The AP reports that it is being threatened into falling in line with the Trump administration despite the AP's explanation of style and journalistic independence.
The American Bar Association calls the second Trump administrations actions unconstitutional and issues a stunningly poignant rebuke of the policies as anathema to the rule of law and the constitution.
Maria Ressa, a Princeton alumnus and journalist from the Philippines won the Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts in the Philippines to resist the authoritarianism of Duarte and promote free speech. Her best selling memoir in 2022 is called, How to Stand Up to a Dictator. Ressa has said,
From Politico; The 2024 U.S. election is ... a “tipping point” in the fight for democracy over autocracy....When it comes to American tech companies, Ressa argues they’ve chosen a side. “I would say Big Tech right now is on the side of autocrats and dictators,” she said. “It enables their rise. It breaks down our shared reality.”
How Democracies Die by Harvard professors Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt;
Harvard professors Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt have spent more than twenty years studying the breakdown of democracies in Europe and Latin America, and they believe the answer is yes. Democracy no longer ends with a bang—in a revolution or military coup—but with a whimper: the slow, steady weakening of critical institutions, such as the judiciary and the press, and the gradual erosion of long-standing political norms. The good news is that there are several exit ramps on the road to authoritarianism. The bad news is that, by electing Trump, we have already passed the first one.
Drawing on decades of research and a wide range of historical and global examples, from 1930s Europe to contemporary Hungary, Turkey, and Venezuela, to the American South during Jim Crow, Levitsky and Ziblatt show how democracies die—and how ours can be saved.
Here is a book talk at the University of Chicago.
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